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Interesting… While this documentary was like 10 years ago… nothing much has changed. The judicial system is being revamped at a snail pace while the other agencies, are still well… as they were 10 years ago…

It’s sad… life goes on and not everyone cares… We should let bygones be bygones, the past is the past. It is the present that we really need to be concern about because it is this present moment that something must be done in order for a better future.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

Part 6

I meant to post this sooner… but have been really busy with the start to the second half of the year. Every company is busy busy busy with budgeting and forecasting. Being in the construction industry really sucks, especially with the raw material price is skyrocketing. I have to practically use up some of my contingencies to counter that effect… Luckily we bought 80% of our equipments before the price went haywire.

Anyway, that wasn’t what I wanted to write about today.

I’m not an economist, but if I have read these two report correctly, aren’t we in recession now?

Inflation to exceed 6% in June (9 July 2008, The Star) and PM: Political stability will soon be restored (8 July 2008, The Star)

Inflation to exceed 6% in June, says Zeti

KUALA LUMPUR: Bank Negara Malaysia expects the consumer price inflation to exceed 6% in June, following the adjustment in petrol prices by 40.6% and diesel prices by 63.3%, says Governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz.

“While domestic inflation is expected to remain elevated for the remaining part of this year and early next year, it is expected to moderate in the second half of 2009,” she said Wednesday.

She said the inflationary pressure was also from increase in electricity tariffs on July 1, with tariffs by up to 18% for households and an average of 26% for some commercial and industry users.

Zeti said this in her speech at the Banking Industry Seminar - Enhancing SMEs’ Awareness on Access to Financing in Kuala Lumpur.

She explained the rising international prices of energy and commodities have confronted economies globally with rising costs and intensifying inflationary pressures.

Hence, several emerging economies had to restructure their fuel subsidies in an effort to create more efficient economies and to achieve more sustainable fiscal positions.

On the economy, she said gross domestic product was averaging about 6% in the recent three years.

“In 2007, the economy expanded by 6.3% and has continued to register a strong growth in the first half of 2008,” she said.

Zeti said this stronger growth has been achieved despite the more challenging external environment and increased uncertainties in the international financial markets.

I don’t really understand most of this terminology but what stand out is inflation is 6% in June….

PM: Political stability will soon be restored

PUTRAJAYA: Malaysia’s economy can hit the 5% growth target this year as the fundamentals are strong, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said.

He also said that the authorities were committed to ensuring businesses could run smoothly.

“I think 5% is achievable,” he said in an interview yesterday.

“We have to manage, reduce the negative impact. Next year we will see what happens, because a lot of things are happening so fast, the volatility of the world economy is very high,” he said.

Abdullah, who is also Finance Minister, said political stability would soon be restored.

“It will stabilise. If we work hard, soon it will stabilise. If we don’t work hard for it, then of course anything can happen. All of us have to cooperate,” he said.

Abdullah, who has had calls for him to step down following the poor showing of the Barisan Nasional in the recent general election, said he was ready to take action to stamp out political instability but declined to say what he might do.

“If we think it’s necessary, at the right time, why not?” Abdullah said, when asked if he was prepared to crack the whip.

“It will be irresponsible not to use that,” he said.

Abdullah pledged to continue with business-friendly policies.
“We will continue to take whatever measures necessary to ensure that the investment climate in Malaysia will continue to be favourable,” he said. – Reuters

Again… 5% growth stands out here… not too sure if he meant GDP or just general growth… Anyway, Dr Zeti did mention GDP would be 6.3% for the first half of the year.

As far as I can understand, if inflation exceeds GDP then we are in recession. Going by these report our inflation would exceed 6% in June and our GDP IS 6.3%. So probabily we are actually in the borderline of recession ain’t it?

I guess we will soon find out on the 25 July when Bank Negara will meets and might discuss about interest rate hikes…

After much thought, I finally think that if the government is not going to take any concrete actions to help and guide us through a potential economy downturn, then we ourselves must take some course of action. What I mean by taking action does not mean take to the street. We have already cast our votes, so now we need to let the bastards play their game, and see if there is a nice ending to the soap opera ‘Blow Up My Sodomizing Ass Off’

In the meantime, we must take steps to protect ourselves…

Tun Dr Mahatir did mention in point 5 of his article MALAYSIA AND A WORLD IN TURMOIL.

The mainstream media hardly ever mention the turmoil that the world is facing. Certainly no in-depth analysis has been made. Only Malaysian Business has asked whether we are prepared for the worldwide catastrophe that must bring chaos and problems to our economy, finance, politics and social life. The rest seemed blithely unconcerned. Certainly the people are not being prepared for the inevitable.

If you read most of the international journal, you will see that most indicators are pointing downwards. Whether it would happen or not, I do not think we should take the chances and leave it to the government or even the opposition to help us. We have to help ourselves now.

While we can’t control the politics at the moment, we can however control or protect ourselves financially, economically and socially.

I would like to share what I think the least or rather the most we can do to protect ourselves should the doom and gloom lingers longer than expected.

Hedge your property loan interest rate.
House or property is one of the largest assets that one would ever buy. And in order to fund that sort of purchase, one would leverage on a loan. If you understand leveraging, it is one of a double edge sword. If the interest rate is in our favor, we will profit from it, if not, we would bleed financially and would maybe sell it at a lost because we can not cover the interest payments.

If ever 1998 was a lesson, many home or property owner had to sell their property at a lost because not everyone could manage the 13% interest rate.

AIA or most insurances are offering fixed rate loans at 6% give or take. If you have not refinance your properties, I believe this is a good time to do so. Refinance it at the fix interest rate, so should ever the economy turns south and the interest rates turns north, your monthly installment does not go anywhere.

Buy into Unit Trusts
In the stock market, one of the sacred rule is never never ever average down your stocks. Meaning if the price of a stock is dropping your don’t buy that stocks and average down the price that you bought.

Example, you bought stock A at 1000 shares at $1 and when stock A goes down to $0.50 you buy another 1000 shares, thus average your buying price to be $0.75.

Because of the volatility of stock markets, it would take your a long time before the price would pick back up to your average buying price. The averaging down strategy in the stock market will only work if you have very big buying and holding power.

However, having said that this strategy works really well in unit trusts.

You see, unit trusts are cheap and affordable thus we can use this strategy to capitalize on a downward market. If you couple this strategy with the Dollar Cost Averaging strategy ie you buy unit trusts every month. When the market turns back up, which normally takes 5 years, you not only be earning from the dividends but also capital appreciation when the market picks itself up.

Big fund managers has the purchasing power to average down on good blue chip stocks and possibly weather the financial storm that would be coming. So in a way when we buy into unit trusts, we are actual lygiving them more purchasing power to weather the storm.

Another reason is that, that are the expert. They know where to make the money from… Don’t you think that they are also speculating on the oil futures as well?

Buy Term Insurances
Forget endorment or investment link plans insurances. You are paying high premium to have part of your money in investments and a part of them as insurances to cover whatever it is that you are covered for.

Insurances are not meant to be an investment. It is as it is… An Insurance. Buy insurances to cover hospitalization, disability and death. Or enough to cover your current liability with a little bit on the side your help your love ones.

Go for term plans. They are cheap and the coverage are bigger. $10 a month can cover you for $50,000. That is $120 a year. Keep the rest in cash, rather than paying premium. The extra cash will help you in many ways that you can imagine. Save part of the cash so that when the economy picks up you would cash to capitalize on opportunities.

When the market picks up, then maybe one should think about endowment or investment link insurances. But I don’t think it is this time.

Get yourself a VISA Debit Card
Budgeting means shit if you can’t follow it. It is said that only 5% of people who actually do budgeting will follow their budgeting plans. Budgeting is only as guide and it is as good as the person following it.

One way to get into your budget plan is to get a debit card. Top up the amount that you have budgeted for that month and once you spend it all that it’s for the month. It’s crude but it does work.

If possible, get two debit card. One for groceries and other household necessities and the other for your entertainment budget. Night out with the family, partner, or love ones.

Get Credit Cards that offers Rebates
The current trend for the credit card industries is affiliating with certain companies and offering rebates to the consumers. Citibank seems to be affiliating with some of the key consumer industry like Shell and Giant.

Get the credit card that affiliate with the companies that you frequent to. A rebate earn is a rebate save…. hehe

Most of these credit cards are giving free annual fee. And if they ever want to charge you just threaten to cancel it, you will get another year of free annual fee.

Forget about the treatpoint or loyalty bonus. Have you check what they offer as point redemption lately? Does not really help you in any way… financially that is.

Now do this only and only if you can control your spending. Having a credit card means taking short term credits and that will really kill financially rather than helping you if you are not careful.

Apply for the EPF Monthly Housing Withdrawal
This is one of a great way to get cash, but while it is not always a good idea to touch your pension fund. I believe it should be a good time to do so.

There are two reasons why you should do this for the time being. Firstly, it is your money and in times like this the money should be in your possession rather than in the government’s hand. When recession hits, not only could the government use their oil money but they could also use our pension fund to help fund big projects. While it might not happen, it could see how our pension fund is linked in many ways to the government.

Secondly, it’s a good time to keep your cash. When you withdraw from your pension fund, the idea is not to spend it… if possible. The ideas is to keep and grow your cash. The reason is simple. When the economy does picks up and it will in due time. We would have the money to capitalize on the opportunity.

‘Cash is King’ as they say… If there was one lesson that I had ever learned in 1998 during the Asian crisis, it was about a man who kept his money before the financial crisis hit us in 1998 and in 2001 when the market was picking up, he dump a lot of his cash into the stock market and bought up a lot of blue chip stocks like Maybank, Tenaga, at about RM5 bucks or less… And now he just enjoys himself all the way to the bank…

While I do not think that one should do the same without any knowledge of the stock market, the point that I am trying to get here is that at the point when recession could hit us. It is a good time to keep cash.

Learn a new skill or improve your current skills
If past experiences has ever taught anyone is that when recession comes, companies keep people who has exceptional skills. We are not in recession yet, but when we are, you will be the last one laughing.

But should the inevitable comes and you get retrenched, you have your new found skills to support you.

There are many seminars around to help you improve your skills or learn a new one. Go ahead and listen to some of the free seminars available, see which one clicks on you. But please please please be wary. Do not get caught up with the sales pitch or be sold to a dream of making big money once you learn the skill.

When you learn a new skill, it’s like crawling. You need to crawl, then walk and only then can you run. So after attending some of the seminars you are not getting the result that you want, do not give up. It’s not that you have failed, it’s just that you have not mastered the skill yet.

Continue to learn from the fellowship from the same seminar. Hopefully good friendship will be build there. As they say, you succeed also depends on who you know…

Be Prepared
Well, I think I have put down some of the things you can do and take action to protect yourself and be prepared for doom and gloom. This is the least we can do to protect ourselves financially, economically and socially.

I was a scout before and the motto has always been ‘Be Prepared’… We must always be prepared for the worst but we can also be prepared for the good times to come. ‘Winter never fails to turn into spring’ Thus when winter comes we are ready and when spring comes I hope that everyone will be able to enjoy and take opportunity of the blooming greens.

Our former prime minister Tun Dr M has made some pointers here on his blog about what we are heading into… Malaysia and A World In Turmoil

And also another article which my friend sent to me the other day.

There is so much talk about oil speculation. I believe it is just part of the problem but not the real part of the problem. Here are some things for you to “chew on”. Currently Non OPEC oil producing countries are forecasting a lower oil output. Their oil fields are in decline. UK used to be a oil exporter but now it is a oil importer as their oil fields are in decline. If this is happening in UK for their oil fields, don’t you think the same thing is happening in OPEC countries?

I just listened to oil expert Colin Kambell (not sure how to spell his name) on radio this morning. He is looking at a possible economic Great Depression due to the natural depletion of oil. He said if Iran is attacked, oil price would reach US$500!

It is not that the world is running out of oil. The fundamental problem is existing supply cannot keep up with demand. This is also the view of the chairman of a major oil company in a article in the Straits Times last year.

Yes, there are a lot of pointers that are pointing towards a depression. People say that this great depression that will hit US is going to be the biggest ever. Currently we have big brother China to help support us in a way, but rumor has it that once the Beijing Olympic is over, so will the support from the great ecomony of China.

China may slow down on their development looking at how the cost of raw material is rising. Again all this is just hearsay.

We just can not wait and see. Even Patrick Teoh (Enough Already) is calling for some concrete action plan to lead or protect our nation from a potential economy slowdown and ever increasing inflation…

Enough with all this sodomizing bullshit, exploding models, who fucked who, which council person is corrupted, petrol price hike.

While the politician fuck around in their own soap opera, the people are suffering… or will be soon if nothing is going to be done about it.

Quoting an entry from Dr. Rafick blog

Politics is never about the people in the streets. Politics is about power and position. No matters whoever goes up, the “real” interest is not the people but it is about power and position. No matter who wins in this power struggle, the people will not gain anything. Rioting will not bring any good to the people. It will make things worst.

Tun Dr Mahatir has already made a statement that it seems the gomen are confident that nothing will happen to Malaysia because we are greatly insulated by our rich resources. Is the gomen that arrogant? Ignorant? Or gomen are really taking us for a ride to hide the inevitable slump that is ahead of us?

Like the Roman empire, while they entertain the people with gladiators and gruesome fights, a great catastrophe was brewing which caused the downfall of the roman empire.

So, while we are ‘entertained’ by our political soap opera about who fucked who… are we going to just sit around and have this ‘wait and see’ attitude and ignore certain facts are are pointing towards doom and gloom?

Sighh…. I’m just tired… Need to think more about this….

It has already been a month since the gomen announce an increase in petrol price. So what has happenned?

Nothing much really, people have already accepted the fact that they can not do much for the time being. All they are doing now is get on with their lives and also queuing up claim their rebates.

I still see a lot of cars on the road. I still see people driving here and there, I still see people speeding on the road. What our PM requested was to Change our lifestyle….

But have we? Well at the moment, I haven’t change much actually… What is there to change? I still need to drive to work. I still need to buy essential stuff like food. I still need to pay the bills. The only lifestyle that I have changed a bit is to not go out every weekend with my family as I use to.

Shit ain’t it…

I guess the effect have not kicked in yet… but it will be in due time.

I watched this video sometime ago, and am still thinking about it.

You see, for all us below-average to above average income earners, there is no problem is changing our lifestyle. We just need to notch down our spending, use up some of our buffer savings (you know the money that we save for a rainy day) and get on with our lives until our fortune picks up or rather the economy picks up again.

Now the only people I feel sorry for are the very poor income earners. Those that are earning about 600 bucks a month or less. I mean… come on.. they are already living from hand to mouth. What other lifestyle changes can they make? They are already at rock bottom and I don’t think that they can go down any further.

And for those who have families, I just feel even sorry for them. They probably could not even support their children’s education. It is very sad….

Now after a month… nothing much has happened to show that the gomen are doing something to help us find a way out of this sky rocketing inflation mess…. And most of us are on the ‘wait and see’ situation.

The effect has not really FULLY hit us just yet. We may feel the pinch this month and maybe really fell the effect by next month.

Hopefully by then something positive comes along…. Hopefully…

Reading breaking news about the petrol price increase from Malaysiakini got my emotion really messed up.

First I was angry. “No! Not again!” Everyone is already complaining about inflation, price has been increasing even without increasing the petrol price. Now they are planning to increase the price.

I believe inflation will continue to rise! No not I believe! Inflation will continue to rise. Period! What the fuck man!!

I reason I think could be, the federal government has lost 5 of the riches state to the opposition. Revenue received by the federal government has dwindled. With this in place, they can get their hands on more money by increasing petrol price. Secondly, this is to punish us citizens, who voted for the oppositions.

So we are going to suffer their wrath!

But after I cooled down, I started to put more thoughts together into this issue.

Firstly, to increase the petrol price to global market level is what we should have done long time ago. We have always been harping to have an open market, I guess liberalizing the petrol market may do some good to the country.

While I do not have a degree in World Economics, I do understand that to have an open market, will help and encourage us to be more creative and enterprising. It will also help us to grow as a nation as we move towards a develop country

We should as a nation stop getting handouts or subsidies from the government. We must learn as a nation to continue to adapt to the world globalizing trend. The only way to learn is to stop being too protected.

Like what Raja Petra said before, we should stop being like a baby and learn to grow up and adapt to the changes of the world. If we are said to be a more matured Malaysian, then we should be matured enough to learn to stand on our own two feet and adapt like an adult.

Yes, with the subsidies, we were pampered. Too pampered I should say. If we are going to continue to grow, we must suffer a while. Adapting and changes is never a smooth transition.

All adult knows that, but maybe choose to deny it. Even as a teenage, learning to grow up to be an adult, is never smooth. So I don’t expect this change to be smooth now matter how well planned the exercise of increasing petrol price.

Secondly, with the subsidies removed, the Government would have an extra RM56 billion in extra funds. This money should be use to improve public transportation and infrastructure to help and assist us citizen not directly but indirectly to grow and mature.

This money should not be use to directly help us financially but rather should help us cope with the changes by giving us the opportunity to better ourselves to meet the global demand.

This money should be use to plug or improve all draining resources like corruption and security.

While there are many ways of utilizing this huge fund, the main objective of utilizing this fund is to plough into implementing policies to improve infrastructure, implement programs and projects that will help encourage, enhance creativity and entrepreneurship of the nation.

Let’s not only get angry but also let us hope that this happens….

Part of maturing isn’t it??

Now this is a great video to share… With all the politic nonsense that is going on in Malaysia since March 8 2008. This is a glimpse of hope for what we or rather I want to see for the sake of my country.

Malaysian Artistes For Unity

Malaysia Rock!!